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Feb 12, 2021
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Abstract
The crude oil markets have seen unpredictability over petroleum markets' good and bad times worldwide in the past few years. Various facets of the natural energy industry discuss in this research paper. The effect of the Indian ecosystem in determining oil demand and supply is vital to understand price fluctuations. Researchers in this research paper concentrates on the ARIMA model and other regression models used in the post-1991 LPG reforms to determine crude petroleum values and their primary effect on the Indian ecosystem (GDP) through time-series data from 1991 to 2019.
The ARIMA model is further evidence of the validation of datasets and the potential trend in the show of global oil rates. The uncouth oil historical values prophesy the potential movement from crude oil prices, and the recommended model-based fallouts are compelling and honest. Before applying the normality of data and unit-roots, the ARIMA model thoroughly checks at the level. If stationary is not detected, then unit-roots are suspended. The first step is to keep residuals static at the required level of significance to provide efficient forecasting using the ARIMA model used for this analysis.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
Mohammad Faisal, S. (2021). Overview of the ARIMA Model Average Crude Oil Price Forecast and its Implications on the Indian Economy Post-Liberalization. International Journal of Multidisciplinary: Applied Business and Education Research, 2(2), 118-127. https://doi.org/10.11594/ijmaber.02.02.06
References
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• Omar, Ahmad and Mohammad (2017) “An Investigation Of Indian Security Market The Viewpoint Of FMCG Companies Who Voyage From Good To Great” International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, Vol. V, Issue 12, http://ijecm.co.uk/wpcontent/uploads/2017/12/51258.pdf
• Omar, Mohammad and Khan, (2018). An Analysis of Optimal Inventory Accounting Models - Pros and Cons, European Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance Research, Vol.6, No.3, pp. 65 -77, http://www.eajournals.org/wp-content/uploads/An-Analysis-of-Optimal-Inventory-Accounting-Models-Pros-and-Cons.pdf
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• Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Yoshino, N., Abdoli, G., Farzinvash, A. (2013), “An estimation of the impact of oil shocks on crude oil exporting economies and their trade partners” Frontiers of Economics in China, 8(4), 571-591.
• Tang, W., Wu, L., Zhang, Z. (2010), “Oil price shocks and their short-and long-term effects on the Chinese economy” Energy Economics, 32(1), 3-14.
• Wang, S.Y., L.A. Yu and K.K. Lai, 2005. Crude oil price forecasting with TEI@I methodology. J. Syst. Sci. Complexity 18: 145-166.
• Basak, S and A Pavlova (2016): “A model of financialization of commodities”, Journal of Finance, vol 71(4), pp 1511−1556.
• Berument, M., Ceylan, N., Dogan, N. (2010), “The impact of oil price shocks on the economic growth of selected MENA1 countries” The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, 1, 149-176.
• Blanchard, O., Gali, J. (2007), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?” NBER Working Paper 13368. p77.
• Bollerslev, Tim (1986). "Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity", Journal of Econometrics, No. 31, p.307-327
• Box, G. E. P., and Jenkins, G. M. (1976), Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, revised edition, San Francisco: Holden Day.
• Brown, S., Yüce, M. (2002), “Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: An interpretative survey” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42(2), 193-208.
• Burbidge, J., Harrison, A. (1984), “Testing for the effects of oil-price rises using vector autoregressions” International Economic Review, 25(2), 459-484.
• Chang, Y., Wong, J. (2003), “Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy” Energy Policy, 31(11), 1151-1165.
• Cuñado, J., Pérez de Gracia, F. (2004). “Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries” Faculty Working Papers. P1-36.
• Engle, Robert F. (1982). "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of Variance of United Kingdom Inflation", Econometric 50:987-1008.
• Faisal and Ahmad (2018) " Foreign Direct Investment (Influx) from different nations and its impact on Economic Development in India: - A detailed study in Service sector and its contribution in overall economic development". International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, Volume 8, ISSN 2250-3153, DOI: 10.29322/IJSRP.8.5.2018.p7710
• Faisal, S M (2016), Valuation of Currency and Its Impact on Investment: A Study in the Context of Many Confounding Factors in International Journal of Management and Commerce Innovations ISSN 2348-7585
• Hamilton, J. (1996), “This is what happened to the oil price-macro economy relationship” Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 215-220.
• https://dbie.rbi.org.in/DBIE/dbie.rbi?site=home
• https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx?head=Handbook%20of%20Statistics%20on%20Indian%20Economy
• https://www.imf.org/en/Research/commodity-prices
• Huseynov, S., Ahmadov, V. (2013), Oil Windfalls, Fiscal Policy and Money Market Disequilibrium. William Davidson Institute Working Paper No. 1051. p40.
• Khalid and Syed “An Empirical Study of Technological Innovations in the Field of Accounting - Boon or Bane” Business and Management Studies, Vol. 4 , No. 1; March 2018, https://doi.org/10.11114/bms.v4i1.3057
• Khan A (2019) “Impact of Demonetization on Outwards Foreign Direct Investment of India - Special Reference to Asian Countries” SUMEDHA-Journal of Management Referred Journal of CMR College of Engineering & Technology January-March 2019, Volume 8, No. 1, pp 23-42ISSN: 2277-6753 (Print) ISSN: 2322-0449 (Online).
• Khan, Faisal (2018) Role and Significance of FDI (Outward) in Indian perspective An Analysis: Post Demonetization Period. J Account Mark 7: 276. doi: 10.4172/2168-9601.1000276
• Khan, S M (2019) “Depreciation of Indian Currency in the Current Economic Scenario”. International Journal of Economic Research.
• Kilian, L. (2008), “Exogenous oil supply shocks: How big are they and how much do they matter for the U.S. Economy?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2), 216-240.
• Lescaroux, F., Mignon, V. (2008), “On the influence of oil prices on economic” OPEC Energy Review, 32, 343-380.
• Omar, Ahmad and Mohammad (2017) “An Investigation Of Indian Security Market The Viewpoint Of FMCG Companies Who Voyage From Good To Great” International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, Vol. V, Issue 12, http://ijecm.co.uk/wpcontent/uploads/2017/12/51258.pdf
• Omar, Mohammad and Khan, (2018). An Analysis of Optimal Inventory Accounting Models - Pros and Cons, European Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance Research, Vol.6, No.3, pp. 65 -77, http://www.eajournals.org/wp-content/uploads/An-Analysis-of-Optimal-Inventory-Accounting-Models-Pros-and-Cons.pdf
• S.Suleiman, Alabi, M. A, Issa, Suleman, U. Usman, Umar Adamu, “Modeling and Forecasting the Crude Oil Price in Nigeria” International Journal of Novel Research in Marketing Management and Economics, Vol. 2, Issue 1, 2015, pp: (1-13).
• Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., Yoshino, N., Abdoli, G., Farzinvash, A. (2013), “An estimation of the impact of oil shocks on crude oil exporting economies and their trade partners” Frontiers of Economics in China, 8(4), 571-591.
• Tang, W., Wu, L., Zhang, Z. (2010), “Oil price shocks and their short-and long-term effects on the Chinese economy” Energy Economics, 32(1), 3-14.
• Wang, S.Y., L.A. Yu and K.K. Lai, 2005. Crude oil price forecasting with TEI@I methodology. J. Syst. Sci. Complexity 18: 145-166.